- September 24, 2026
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. Here’s what happened, what the Fed’s own projections say comes next, and why planning around a range beats planning around a forecast.
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points, to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%. The vote was unanimous.1 The median official expects one more hike by year-end, which would put the range at 4.00%–4.25%.1
If you were watching the market, none of this was a surprise. After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on August 28, market pricing swung from almost no hikes through December to about 1.36 of them.2 The market got there first. Markets price in what they expect to happen, so by the time the Fed acts, the adjustment has often already happened. Longer-term rates moved too: the 10-year Treasury yield ended August at 4.75%.2
Here’s the part worth pausing on. Warsh opened his Jackson Hole remarks with this: “You can call it an outline . . . you can call it a trail map . . . just don’t call it forward guidance.”3 Then the committee published a chart of where every member expects rates to go.1 That chart is the “dot plot,” where each committee member marks where they expect the policy rate to land. It shows the direction of the committee’s thinking, which is exactly what a “quieter Fed” says it doesn’t want to promise. The Fed is quieter now, apparently, in every way except the ones it isn’t calling guidance.
In March, the Fed’s own projections showed a half point of cuts. In September, they show a half point of hikes.4
Zoom out and it’s the same story, round two. A committee sets the price of money for the entire economy, guesses which way it should go, reverses when the guess changes, and won’t tell you the next guess. That isn’t a conspiracy. It’s central planning, and it has the usual track record.
You can’t plan around a forecast that flips this fast. You can plan around your income, your spending, your timeline, and a range of outcomes wide enough to survive being wrong. The Fed’s own projections don’t have inflation back at 2% until 2029.1
What does a range look like in practice? It means knowing what your finances look like if rates go up again, if they come back down, or if they stay right where they are. Variable-rate debt, income that moves with the economy, and cash you’ll need soon all feel a rate change differently. The goal isn’t to predict the next move. It’s to know you’d be okay whichever way it goes.
Have a question about how any of this fits your plan? Schedule a call.
Sources
- KPMG, “September 2026 FOMC Meeting.” 25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimous vote, first increase since July 2023; median projection of 4.00%–4.25% by year-end 2026; inflation projected to reach 2% in 2029. kpmg.com
- Savvy Wealth, “August 2026 Global Markets Recap.” Market-implied hikes through December 2026 moved from near zero to about 1.36 following the August 28 Jackson Hole address. savvywealth.com
- Federal Reserve Board, Chairman Kevin Warsh, “In Our Time,” Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, August 28, 2026. federalreserve.gov
- BondSavvy, “September 2026 Fed Dot Plot.” Median projections moved from one-half point of cuts (March 2026) to one-half point of hikes (September 2026). bondsavvy.com
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